The Covid-19 infection may peak in late June nationally, a study by the Kolkata-based Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (IACS) showed.
It also says that the peak itself could be halved with increased testing and stringent lockdowns in targeted zones. The study also suggests that the lockdown has successfully delayed the peak by a month, giving us more time to deal with treatment logistics.
The “bio-computational modelling” study aims to predict progress of Covid-19 in India and assess the impact of the lockdown by modifying infection rates and obtaining best- and worst-case scenarios. Going by the trend of the model’s curve and effective reproduction number (2.2), over 1.5 lakh would be infected at the peak, which could occur in late-June.